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We have a very interesting situation in 2025: the global cattle stock is heading towards a structural shortage of just 607 million head, the lowest volume in the historical series, which began in 1968. Presenting this baseline scenario, John Octavio Figueiredo, Research Leader at DATAGRO Livestock, started the discussions of the third panel of the Global Agribusiness Forum, which takes place this Thursday, in Punta del Este, Uruguay. This scenario continues Figueiredo, is caused by the crisis in North America, where cattle stocks are at their lowest level in over 70 years. Of the 607 million head projected for global stocks this year, 260 million are in South America – 182 million in Brazil, 53 million in Argentina, 13 million in Paraguay and 12 million in Uruguay – and 114 million in North America. “This opens up many opportunities. Not only for Mercosur to send more meat to the United States, but also to Mexico, Canada and other destinations that the US normally occupied,” he points out. Figueiredo. For 2025, the projection of DATAGRO Livestock is a deficit of almost 400 thousand tons in global meat consumption; and a negative balance of 121 thousand tons in trade flow between countries. Currently, Brazil exports about 30% of all meat produced in the country, a percentage well below the 80% of Uruguay and the 70% of Paraguay. Argentina, in turn, is exporting 27% of its production, a level close to that of Brazil, but with one difference: the neighboring country is more dependent on China. While Argentina sends 75% of its exports to the Asian country, Brazil sends 52%. Given this favorable scenario for Mercosur, invited experts pointed out some paths for the consolidation of the bloc in the global beef market.
Alvaro Pereira Ramela, Market Access Manager at National Meat Institute of Uruguay, advocated the need to maintain a high level of balance between production costs, productivity and prices. To this end, he suggests Ramela, governments must always seek new health qualifications, promote the local livestock brand internationally and invest in traceability and sustainability. “We know that the average quality of Uruguayan and Argentine meat has historically always been superior to that of Brazil, but Brazil has had a great gain in efficiency in recent years, investing in traceability and sustainability”, he pointed out. John Figueiredo. Another point of attention, which must be reversed, is related to the high rates charged by countries to import meat from Mercosur. According to Ramela, the bloc currently faces higher taxes than Australia to export meat to the world’s main buyers. On the industry side, Marcelo Secco Arias, COO of Marfrig Conosur, advocated the need to work on certification processes, which helps to open up the market and add value to the raw material. For the near future, the Research Leader of DATAGRO Livestock, Brazil and Argentina are beginning to enter the process of rebuilding stocks, which should affect the global supply of cattle. In Uruguay, however, the situation is more balanced.
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